Capitalize on the Seasonal Patterns of the Market

Seasonality or Seasonal Trading is a characteristic of price data which exhibits consistent and predictable movement that recurs every calendar year. It’s time to take advantage.

Turning Noise Into Actionable Insights

What is Seasonality?

Seasonality is a characteristic of price data which exhibits consistent and predictable movement that recurs every calendar year on average. Some simple examples include:

  • agriculture harvests and planting seasons
  • holiday shopping spikes for retail stocks
  • higher utility and energy prices in winter
  • political elections and campaign season
  • earnings and product announcements
  • Turn of the month effect
  • Tax loss harvesting
  • month end window dressing

These repeatable patterns happen on all time frames and there is finally a tool to help traders capitalize on seasonality! Read more from Investopedia.com here: Seasonality Definition

Average Stock Price Paths
Seasonal Composite Graph Smoothed Average Performance

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Seasonal Cheat Sheet

A daily cheat sheet of historically favorable trades, including entry and exit points, stop-loss levels, and profit targets. It uses technical analysis, market trends, and expert insights to identify profitable trading opportunities for the upcoming day.

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The best historical  performing trades sent to your inbox daily. Daily, intraday and now options structural trades that have performed well on this trading day in the past. Find out what moves during this upcoming market period before it does.

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SeasonalTrading.com Seasonal Tool

Best Seasonal Trading Tool

A seasonal trading tool to hunt ideal periods to add or reduce exposure. Traders and investors looking to capitalize on predictable market patterns can discover them easily with our tools.

Composite Charts

Find the opportune windows to add exposure or reduce positions in any stock, ETF or mutual fund. We isolate historically profitable periods and display performance from any trading week or trading day of the year. 

XOM Seasonal Composite Graph

Newly Added Options Features

Best Option Trades

Historically profitable option trades. Quickly see which option structures have provided the greatest return on investment over historically favorable seasonal periods for all popular stocks. 

Buying stock may yield a smaller return than putting on a similarly positioned option trade. Options may also provide income in the event of sideways trading or an uncooperative market environment. 

MSFT

Entry: Oct 03

Exit: Oct 22

Avg(%) 592.3

Stock 2.81%

Wins/Total 7/7

AMC

Entry: Oct 03

Exit: Oct 04

Avg(%) 192.52

Stock 2.17%

Wins/Total 6/6

Option Backtesting

Test and evaluate option trading strategies based on historical seasonal data and factors. Find the best seasonal factors and pair them with the best option trade structure. View historical performance and full list of past trades.

Option Backtesting Tool

What PROs say about Seasonal Trading

find out what people who have trusted us say about us

Seasonal trading is no BS. Trades are delivered before they occur and are backed by data. This is the only transparent way to time the markets. The value of this subscription is tremendous.

I have already recommended three of my other trader friends to sign up. Thanks for the work you guys do.

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@InterestRateArb Active Trader

Day trading without knowing intraday behaviors is a fool’s game. I build my watchlist the night before and can check the intraday charts as well.

This has saved me some false tops and falling knives no doubt. So simple but not sure why more day traders don’t look at this stuff.

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Thomas Griffin Portfolio Manager @xDTJx

Frequently Asked
Seasonality Questions

All symbols and asset classes. Stocks, ETFs, Mutual Funds, Cryptocurrencies, Foreign Exchange, Futures.
As much as possible for each symbol. Often dating back to companies Initial Public Offerings (IPOs).
Yes! Our premium plan includes intraday seasonality tools and alerts.
Yes, but we do not process any pro-rated refunds. Please take advantage of our one-week free trial.

An expected price move based on historical data that has shown similar price movements in the past. To read more on seasonal patterns please check out this other blog highlighting seasonality trading strategies

Additionally, we wrote an in-depth blog about Seasonality here: What is Seasonality in Trading?

Public companies report their earnings either quarterly or at least annually. These moments where companies share their earnings estimates, earnings per share and revenue forecasts can present very unique seasonal patterns in the data. Large portfolio managers often look to accumulate shares ahead of the released numbers while prudent risk managers and market makers look to hedge any existing exposures. These natural market dynamics create powerful seasonal tendencies and directional patterns in the data that can be observed through seasonaltrading.com’s powerful tools and watchlists.
Often seasonality presents itself in commodities or stocks that have natural operations or business dealings around certain periods of the calendar. For example, retail stocks experience spikes in sales volume, revenue and foot traffic during the holiday season while farmers and commodity producers experience seasonal harvest and planting seasons which make natural opportunities for end consumers and purchasers to hedge.

Spread trading is most common in commodity markets where deliverable future contracts have an expiration date. A trader may seek to buy the March contract and simultaneously sell the June contract. This position or difference between the two contracts is referred to as a spread. Spreads between different expirations or different commodities altogether can exhibit their own seasonal patterns and tendencies.

Spread trading is very common among professionals, commercials, and hedge funds alike. These are often less looked at by retail traders as it is often difficult to find accurate quotes of the spread itself. However, we aim to provide not only accurate pricing but seasonality insights for as many spreads as we can cover.

Swing trading usually consists of holding a position for more than a day and often a few days, weeks or even months while the trading position matures. Looking for shorter-term directional movement is often harder than long-term investing which focuses on the underlying business’s fundamentals. Seasonality and seasonal trading can often provide solid reasoning and logic as well as narrow the symbol universe for traders looking to enter profitable swing trades. Swing traders often lean on seasonality as a primary factor in their trading decisions due to the statistical nature and grounded logic behind the data.

To learn more about Swing Trading with Seasonals please check out this full guide here: Seasonal Swing Trading Guide

Seasonal trading is one of the most popular approaches to financial markets and investing with success stories dating back hundreds of years. Many commodity and stock traders observed patterns that continue to this day. The stock trader’s almanac and other published sources document the history of trading seasonals quite well. Seasonality is often overlooked due to human nature’s desire to overcomplicate things that seem to require complexity. However, many traders have shown that seasonal trading can greatly reduce the complexity while still approaching the market in a sound manner.
Stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) demonstrate seasonal opportunities of all shapes and sizes. The retail sector of the economy undoubtedly goes through an increase in revenue, sales, and more during the holiday season. Other parts of the economy like the energy sector have seasonal fluctuations as well during weather changes. No matter the industry or sector there is usually one or more seasonal factors that can affect the stock trading. A savvy investor should always consult seasonal patterns when stock trading to avoid buying before a seasonal lull or selling before a potential seasonal uptrend.

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